COULD CEUTA AND MELILLA BE TRADED FOR GIBRALTAR?

Over the years I have long argued that the day may come that sees Gibraltar in some form become Spanish and both Ceuta and Melilla become part of the state of Morocco.

The two enclaves on the north coast of Morocco have been Spanish for centuries. Melilla was occupied by Spain in 1496 whilst Ceuta was captured in 1580. Gibraltar in contrast was taken for England in 1704 and ceded in perpetuity under the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713.

The status of the Spanish enclaves and Gibraltar are very different. Ceuta and Melilla are integral parts of Spain – as Spanish as the mainland provinces of Málaga and Cádiz to which they have close ties. By contrast Gibraltar has been an often ill-used British colony. It is probable that the Rock is no longer a colony as such, although opinion is divided on that point.

Ceuta and Melilla play a part in the every day life of Spain voting in the nation’s general elections. Gibraltar has been considered little more than a military base, its strategic importance ebbing and flowing with the tide of world affairs, where the views and opinions of the residents have been given scant regard with no official voice at Westminster.

Spanish politicians and the Royal Family visit the enclaves on a regular basis. Only British politicians involved in the day-to-day affairs of Gibraltar visit there and no monarch would contemplate a visit for fear of offending Spain.

However both Ceuta, Melilla and Gibraltar share something in common. All three are coveted by Morocco or Spain. The visits of Spanish royals to the enclaves cause outrage in Morocco but Madrid doesn’t care. As I said no British monarch would visit Gibraltar because the Foreign Office in London would quake in its boots at the mere suggestion. Gibraltar has never been an integral part of Britain hence London’s indifference to defending the Rock’s interests over its own.

It is probably true to say that the people of Morocco do want to see the Spanish enclaves become part of their nation. As it is not a democracy it is hard to tell. In contrast the majority of Spaniards, except those in the Campo de Gibraltar, have no strong views on the Rock other than a vague sense that it should be Spanish.

This is reflected in a recent survey in El Mundo were just 12 per cent of Spaniards said they would not mind if Ceuta and Melilla were handed over to Morocco, so long as Gibraltar became Spanish. Only 5 per cent believe the enclaves should be handed over to Morocco immediately. In contrast 70 per cent take the view that the Spanish Government should protect Ceuta and Melilla “because they are as Spanish as any other cities” in mainland Spain. I should add that I do not believe that the man and woman on the Clapham omnibus hold any such strong views on Gibraltar. Llanitos may look to Britain but if Britons look in this direction at all it is to the holiday resorts of mainland Spain and its islands.

Whilst Gibraltar is not high on the agenda of the Spanish public, even if it registers at all, the fact is the Rock is a political Holy Grail. No party, especially on the right, is going to give up the sovereignty claim, and no party on the left is going to be accused of doing so, especially when there are so many other real issues to make a stand on.

However the problem remains. Gibraltar will always be a thorn in Anglo-Spanish relations especially as Britain has been seen to weaken and seek some form of joint sovereignty. Morocco has been given no such joy by Spain but these two nations face each other across the Strait of Gibraltar and peace, harmony and joint development is very much on the agenda.

I still believe that if Britain allows Gibraltar to become Spanish in some form then the pressure from Morocco will force Spain to move on Melilla and Ceuta. Or, if Morocco exerts strong pressure on Spain, a deal will be needed on Gibraltar to save face in Madrid. The decision might even be made on a tri-nation basis with, I suspect, joint-sovereignty being the key. I fear that when the time comes for such an international deal the views and wishes of the people of Gibraltar, Ceuta and Melilla will be given scant regard. The interests of thousands will not be allowed to stand in the way of the will of millions; they never have even in democracies.

THE LAST STRAW

The Labour Government is in deep trouble, its summer, Parliament is on holiday so the conspiracy theorists have come out to play.

Will Brown go or stay? Will Jack Straw succeed him as an interim measure? What of David Miliband? Enough there alone to keep us going till the autumn.

Memories are long in Gibraltar and the prospect of Jack Straw taking over, even as an interim measure, is causing concern.

My eye recently fell on an article in the Gibraltar daily ‘Panorama’. I suspect it was penned by the paper’s respected editor, Joe García.

He wrote: “As a senior Labour minister, Straw is seen as the most likely person to be pushed into a leadership stake.

“If he were to take the plunge and succeed, Britain would have a prime Minister who wants Gibraltar’s sovereignty to be shared with Spain. When he visited Gibraltar at the time of the 2002 sovereignty plan, he was jeered in the streets. Later, it emerged he was leading what the Tories labelled a sell-out.“Straw spent a year in secret conclave with the Spanish working out the joint sovereignty deal.

“The then Europe minister Peter Hain was close to clinching the deal, but at the last moment the Spanish pulled back on instructions from Prime Minister José María Aznar, who was to sack his foreign minister Josep Pique.“We have made significant progress towards a solution, Straw told Parliament in July 2002. He was foreign secretary at the time.

“The planned joint declaration would have been a comprehensive package to include a new draft treaty which would be ratified after a referendum in Gibraltar.“But Britain had its ‘red lines’ that needed to be upheld by Spain, including the referendum and particularly that joint sovereignty would not extend to the military base.

“There were cries of ‘sell out’ when Straw referred in Parliament to the deal including that Britain and Spain would share sovereignty over Gibraltar, including the disputed territory of the isthmus.”

Well the world has moved on since then and much that was offered as a carrot to Gibraltar to share sovereignty has been gained under the Córdoba Agreement and Tripartite talks between Spain, Britain and the Rock.

With a relatively short period between now and the next British election, the prime minister, be it Brown or another, has enough to concentrate his (or her) mind without offering joint sovereignty on Gibraltar. Also was Straw pursuing his own policy or merely doing what he was told by Blair? I suspect the latter is far more likely.

If I was a betting man, and I’m not, I suspect that Brown will cling on and lead his party to the election.

If he is ousted, I can’t see the electorate rallying around Jack Straw – the man of straw – who shook hands with Robert Mugabe not realising who he was. Hardly a safe pair of hands.

Miliband and others may want the leadership, but with Labour odds on to loose power, he and they will probably keep their powder dry and pick up the pieces after Brown has overseen the electoral disaster.

Would the voters rally round a Labour Party under yet another leader anyway? I suspect not – this game is up.

And what of the much loathed Peter Hain? Known for his perma-tan this was probably due to his Southern Africa genes and his holiday home in the Costa del Sol town of Estepona rather than a sun bed. Ironically now he is spending ‘more time with his family’ he can sit on his Spanish terrace, sip his gin and tonic, look at Gibraltar on the horizon and dream of what could have been.